Nonstationary bayesian modeling of precipitation extremes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China

Abstract

This paper investigates the nonstationarity of precipitation extremes by incorporating time-varying and physical-based explanatory covariates, using daily precipitation data across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China. We perform the stationary and nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models based on the Bayesian framework to estimate the expected return levels of precipitation extremes with the 90% credible intervals. Results reveal that the nonstationarity of precipitation extremes is not prominently visible for the majority of sites in BTH. However, the nonstationary GEV models exhibit better performance to capture the variations of precipitation extremes by comparison to the stationary models based on four evaluation criteria. Further, this work attempts to determine the best covariate to illustrate the possible effects of environmental changes on the frequency analysis. Results indicate that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the top of the best covariates, followed by the East Asian summer monsoon, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and local temperature anomaly. Moreover, the best covariates are dominated by the physical-based covariates, and the best models with nonlinear functions of covariates are found in the majority of sites. Finally, the best-fitted models are used to estimate the design values of return levels in precipitation extremes. Results illustrate that the differences between the stationary modeling and nonstationary modeling in the median condition of covariates are not significant for most of the sites. But the discrepancies will be enhanced if the covariates locate in a high (95-percentile) or low (5-percentile) value. Our findings suggest that the nonstationary modeling of precipitation extremes might prove more useful and reliable, especially in the uncommon conditions of physical-based covariates.