Abstract
In Republic of Korea, stationary extreme value distribution models are generally used for estimating the design of coastal and harbor structures. However, due to the impact of climate change, the probability of typhoon is recently increasing. In order to consider this tendency, a non-stationary extreme value distribution model was applied in this study. The annual maximum storm surges were calculated by the storm surge model, and then, results from the storm surge model were applied to a non-stationary GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) distribution model to calculate the extreme storm surge height. The storm surge height of 50 year return period by non-stationary model was 28% higher than the storm surge height of a previous study that used stationary models. The overall results achieved in this study are expected to provide data and useful in establishing a master paln for disaster prevention. Keywords: Non-Stationary, GEV Model, Maximum Likelihood Method, Storm Surge
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