Nonparametric Binary Recursive Partitioning for Deterioration Prediction of Infrastructure Elements

Abstract

This paper introduces binary recursive partitioning (BRP) as a method for estimating bridge deck deterioration and treats it as a classification and decision problem. The proposed BRP method is applied to the Indiana bridge inventory database containing 25 years of detailed information on approximately 5,500 bridges on state-maintained highways. Classification trees are separately created for 4 and 2 prediction classes and relatively high degrees of success are achieved for deck condition prediction. The significant variables identified as the most influential include current deck condition and deck age. The proposed method offers an alternative nonparametric approach for bridge deck condition prediction and could be used for cross comparisons of models calibrated using the widely applied parametric approaches.