NON-STATIONARY PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENTS INCORPORATING TIDES AND SEA LEVEL RISE

Abstract

Tides and climate driven sea level rise (SLR) contribute significantly to water level changes in the short and long term, respectively. In terms of magnitude, they could be comparable to tsunamis of interest at certain coasts. New non-stationary probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (nPTHA) methods that were developed to include the mean sea level changes due to a warming climate are now extended to incorporate the uncertainty of the tidal phase at the moment of tsunami occurrence. Here, a collocation-based model is used in the nPTHA method to render the calculation feasible and efficient.