Non-Oil-and-Gas GDP as an Indicator of Economic Dynamics in Russia

Abstract

The paper argues for using non-oil-and-gas GDP as an indicator of economic dynamics in Russia. It also may be used for evaluating absorbtive capacity of the economy. The excess inflow of petro- and gas dollars has resulted in the investment boom accompanied by declining fixed capital effectiveness and escalating investment goods prices. The paper also addresses the perspectives of the Russian economy development prior and after 2008. Among other findings, the author has come to the conclusion that strengthening the Russian currency is fighting both inflation and economic growth. Such anti-inflation policy may be applied before 2008, while it is no longer needed afterwards under careful budget spending policy mainly due to a better balance between the monetary demand and actual supply of goods and services.