Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival in Patients with FIGO II to III Squamous Cell Cervical Carcinoma Under Radical Radiotherapy: A Retrospective Analysis Based on 2018 FIGO Staging

Abstract

PurposeTo present a nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with FIGO-2018 II to III squamous cell cervical carcinoma undergoing radical radiotherapy.Patients and MethodsPatients diagnosed with FIGO-2018 II to III squamous cell cervical cancer between December 2013 and December 2014 were analyzed retrospectively. The optimal cutoff point for tumor length and width were determined by R package. We identified prognostic factors by univariate and multivariate Cox proportional-hazard regression, then built a nomogram to visualize the prediction model. Our model was compared to the 2018 FIGO staging prediction model. Harrell’s concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration plot were used to evaluate the discriminability and accuracy of the predictive models, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to show the net benefits.ResultsData from 469 patients were included in the final analyses. The cutoff values of tumor length and width were 5.10 cm and 4.13 cm, respectively. Four independent prognostic variables—tumor length, tumor width, lower one-third vaginal involvement, and lymph node metastases—were used to establish the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.71 (95%, CI = 0.66–0.77), which was better than that of the 2018 FIGO stage prediction model (C-index: 0.62, 95% CI = 0.58–0.66, p = 0.009). The calibration plot of the nomogram was a good fit for both 3-year and 5-year overall survival predictions. And DCA curves showed that net benefits for our model were higher than FIGO-2018 staging system.ConclusionA clinically useful nomogram for calculating overall survival probability in FIGO-2018 II to III squamous cell cervical cancer patients who had received radical radiotherapy was developed. Tumor length, tumor width, lower one-third vaginal involvement, and lymph node metastases were found to be independent prognostic factors. Our model performed better than the 2018 FIGO staging model. The findings could help clinicians in China to predict the survival of these patients in clinical care and research.