Nomogram for Predicting Microvascular Invasion in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Using Gadoxetic Acid-Enhanced MRI and Intravoxel Incoherent Motion Imaging

Abstract

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is an important risk factor in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but it can only be determined through histopathological results. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram for preoperative prediction MVI in HCC using gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and intravoxel incoherent motion imaging (IVIM). From July 2017 to September 2022, 148 patients with surgically resected HCC who underwent preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI and IVIM were included in this retrospective study. Clinical indicators, imaging features, and diffusion parameters were compared between the MVI-positive and MVI-negative groups using the chi-square test, Mann-Whitney U test, and independent sample t test. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic performance in predicting MVI. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify the significant clinical-radiological variables associated with MVI. Subsequently, a predictive nomogram that integrates clinical-radiological risk factors and diffusion parameters was developed and validated. Serum alpha-fetoprotein level, tumor size, nonsmooth tumor margin, peritumoral hypo-intensity on hepatobiliary phase (HBP), apparent diffusion coefficient value and D value were statistically significant different between MVI-positive group and MVI-negative group. The results of multivariate analysis identified tumor size (odds ratio [OR], 0.786; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.675-0.915; P<.01), nonsmooth tumor margin (OR, 2.299; 95% CI, 1.005-5.257; P<.05), peritumoral hypo-intensity on HBP (OR, 2.786; 95% CI, 1.141-6.802; P<.05) and D (OR, 0.293; 95% CI,0.089-0.964; P<.05) was the independent risk factor for the status of MVI. In ROC analysis, the combination of peritumoral hypo-intensity on HBP and D demonstrated the highest area under the curve value (0.902) in prediction MVI status, with sensitivity 92.8% and specificity 87.7%. The nomogram exhibited excellent predictive performance with C-index of 0.936 (95% CI 0.895-0.976) in the patient cohort, and had well-fitted calibration curve. The nomogram incorporating clinical-radiological risk factors and diffusion parameters achieved satisfactory preoperative prediction of the individualized risk of MVI in patients with HCC.