Nomogram for predicting incomplete cytoreduction in advanced ovarian cancer patients

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ObjectiveAccurately predicting cytoreducibility in advanced-ovarian cancer is needed to establish preoperative plans, consider neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and improve clinical trial protocols. We aimed to develop a positron-emission tomography/computed tomography-based nomogram for predicting incomplete cytoreduction in advanced-ovarian cancer patients. MethodsBetween 2006 and 2012, 343 consecutive advanced-ovarian cancer patients underwent positron-emission tomography/computed tomography before primary cytoreduction: 240 and 103 patients were assigned to the model development or validation cohort, respectively. After reviewing the detailed surgical documentation, incomplete cytoreduction was defined as a remaining gross residual tumor. We evaluated each individual surgeon's surgical aggressiveness index (number of high-complex surgeries/total number of surgeries). Possible predictors, including surgical aggressiveness index and positron-emission tomography/computed tomography features, were analyzed using logistic regression modeling. A nomogram based on this model was developed and externally validated. ResultsComplete cytoreduction was achieved in 120 patients (35%). Surgical aggressiveness index and five positron-emission tomography/computed tomography features were independent predictors of incomplete cytoreduction. Our nomogram predicted incomplete cytoreduction by incorporating these variables and demonstrated good predictive accuracy (concordance index=0.881; 95% CI=0.838–0.923). The predictive accuracy of our validation cohort was also good (concordance index=0.881; 95% CI=0.790–0.932) and the predicted probability was close to the actual observed outcome. Our model demonstrated good performance across surgeons with varying degrees of surgical aggressiveness. ConclusionWe have developed and validated a nomogram for predicting incomplete cytoreduction in advanced-ovarian cancer patients which may help stratify patients for clinical trials, establish meticulous preoperative plans, and determine if neoadjuvant chemotherapy is warranted.