Noise-induced tipping under periodic forcing: Preferred tipping phase in a non-adiabatic forcing regime.

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We consider a periodically forced 1D Langevin equation that possesses two stable periodic solutions in the absence of noise. We ask the question: is there a most likely noise-induced transition path between these periodic solutions that allows us to identify a preferred phase of the forcing when tipping occurs? The quasistatic regime, where the forcing period is long compared to the adiabatic relaxation time, has been well studied; our work instead explores the case when these time scales are comparable. We compute optimal paths using the path integral method incorporating the Onsager-Machlup functional and validate results with Monte Carlo simulations. Results for the preferred tipping phase are compared with the deterministic aspects of the problem. We identify parameter regimes where nullclines, associated with the deterministic problem in a 2D extended phase space, form passageways through which the optimal paths transit. As the nullclines are independent of the relaxation time and the noise strength, this leads to a robust deterministic predictor of the preferred tipping phase in a regime where forcing is neither too fast nor too slow.