Nip risk in the bud: A system dynamic model to govern NIMBY conflict

Abstract

“Not In My Backyard” (NIMBY) conflict refers to public resistance to the government in delivering and operating NIMBY facilities. Although the antecedents of NIMBY conflicts are widely explored (e.g., negative externalities, public sensitivity, external triggers), there is rare literature systematically exploring their integrated effects on public resistance from the public social psychology perspective that considers the interplaying effects of public risk and emotion perception. Besides, to reflect the nonlinear change of public resistance (i.e., “emergency” and “discontinuity” features of NIMBY conflict), we originally integrate the catastrophe theory into the system dynamic method to establish an SD-Catastrophe model to simulate the evolution process of public resistance behavior. The effect of governmental response on NIMBY conflicts is especially examined in the simulation model, and the catastrophe characteristics of public resistance behavior in NIMBY conflict are verified. The result shows that governmental response contributes to eliminating NIMBY conflicts in four aspects: 1)Different facilities, different urgency; 2) The faster, the better; 3) The higher intensity, the better; and 4) Existing effect lag. Based on the nonlinear change of public resistance, two governance strategies, including the internal strategy (i.e., optimizing public psychological states) and the external strategy (i.e., controlling project external triggers), are formulated to help the government eliminate the risk of NIMBY conflict.