Niedrigzinsen: Ursachen und wirtschaftspolitische Implikationen

Abstract

The ECB's low interest rate policy has been criticised from many sides: Individual savers and banks would suffer, companies would prolong failed business models (zombifi cation), evasive reactions would create bubbles on real estate markets and the stock exchange. In the European Union, the Stability Pact and the resulting reduction in the demand for capital by the states are often blamed for the low interest rates. However, there is much to suggest that the phenomenon is global - especially when you look at real interest rates: It seems that the global supply of capital exceeds the demand. The reasons are that more and more citizens are making private provisions for old age, that the distribution of income has changed in favour of those on high incomes with a high propensity to save, or that capital goods have become cheaper worldwide. What should be done? An interest rate increase is not recommended. Rather, other economic policy measures should help to increase the demand for capital, such as increasing government net borrowing to fi nance additional investment and reducing the savings ratio, e. g. by distributional policy measures.