Abstract
This study investigates the use of a non-linear autoregressive exogenous neural network (NARX) model to investigate the nexus between energy usability, economic indicators, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in four Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), namely Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Optimized NARX model architectures of 5-29-1, 5-19-1, 5-17-1, 5-13-1 representing the input nodes, hidden neurons and the output units were obtained from the series of models configured. Based on the relationship between the input variables, CO2 emissions were predicted with a high correlation coefficient (R) > 0.9. and low mean square errors (MSE) of 3.92 × 10−21, 4.15 × 10−23, 2.02 × 10−19, 1.32 × 10−20 for Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines, respectively. Coal consumption has the highest level of influence on CO2 emissions in the four ASEAN countries based on the sensitivity analysis. These findings suggest that government policies in the four ASEAN countries should be more intensified on strategies to reduce CO2 emissions in relationship with the energy and economic indicators.
Highlights
In the past three decades, there has been rapid urbanization and industrialization among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which invariably has translated to economic growths, and high energy demand and consumption [1]
Optimization of the hidden neurons was performed to determine the number of hidden neurons that will minimize the mean square errors (MSE) in the NARX neural network architecture
This study demonstrates the application of a non-linear autoregressive exogenous neural network for modelling the prediction of CO2 emissions in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the network for modelling the prediction of CO2 emissions in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines
Summary
In the past three decades, there has been rapid urbanization and industrialization among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which invariably has translated to economic growths, and high energy demand and consumption [1]. Recent energy outlook by the international energy agency revealed that the rising fuel demands among Southeast Asian countries have surpassed the regional production the possibility of becoming a net importer of fuel [5]. The increase in economic indicators and energy demand translated into energy-related CO2 emissions.
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