Abstract
Until recently, the main effect of technology on professional or knowledge-based work has been to augment and expand it, partly as described in Autor, Levy and Murnane’s 2003 analysis. There are now increasingly instances of knowledge-based work being automated and substituted, developments that are more familiar from factory and basic administrative settings. Two widely-quoted studies, by Frey and Osborne (2013) and Susskind and Susskind (2015), point towards significant technology-driven job losses including in professional fields. Subsequent analyses indicate that while some occupations will disappear or be deskilled, others will be created. The argument made here is that the most significant effect will be occupational transformation, necessitating different types of skills in a net movement towards work that is more digitally-oriented but also complex, creative and value-based. These changes have implications that are already beginning to affect the way that professions are organised and how practitioners are educated and trained.
Highlights
A popular interpretation of emerging technological advances is to posit a “fourth industrial revolution” (Schwab, 2016) or “second machine age” (Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2014)
The remainder of this paper examines current evidence and discussion on the impact of technology on work, and argues that while there will be implications for professions, making sense of these needs to consider more than the ability of emerging technologies to automate or substitute for tasks currently associated with professional occupations
Current analyses suggest that this will result in job losses in some areas, broadly offset by the emergence of new occupations
Summary
A popular interpretation of emerging technological advances is to posit a “fourth industrial revolution” (Schwab, 2016) or “second machine age” (Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2014). A significant difference between the initial computer age and current advances is that the latter are expected to have a widespread impact on the nature of professional and knowledge-based work, and potentially on the organisation of professions themselves.
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