New population dynamics models to evaluate the climate impacts on wildlife populations

Abstract

In order to study the global decline of biodiversity, accurate models of wildlife population dynamics are required. In this paper, we propose new population dynamics models to evaluate the climate impacts on wildlife populations. The considered population is modelled by a parameter-varying partial differential equation. The parameter-varying formulation allows us to introduce in models prior information such as temperatures and precipitations to model the climate impacts. The parameter estimation is performed with specific tools: an iterative identification procedure based on a Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, a Galerkin method and a proper orthogonal decomposition. The goal of the present paper is to test these tools on simulated dataset. The perspectives are to model specific community of birds in order to evaluate the effect of climate and agricultural changes in population dynamics and distributions.