Population dynamics analysis for policy evaluation using micro-level population dynamics

Abstract

Population dynamics describes the changes in size, distribution and age compositions of population. Modeling and simulation have been used by researchers and scientists to understand and analyze the population dynamics and to apply it for policy evaluation. In this paper we describe a population dynamics model based on the features of both the microsimulation and the agent-based modelling. We apply this model to simulate and analyze the Korean population dynamics using the Korean population data. The agents in this model derive their decisions and behaviors from the real data (microsimulation feature) and interact among themselves (agent based modeling feature) to proceed in the simulation and change their states such as their age, educational status, gender etc., along with simulation procedure. This model is used for the analysis of population dynamics by varying behaviors, interactions and social scenarios of the agents. The simulation results obtained through these virtual experiments enabled us to discover the factors that trigger population dynamics. This paper makes an attempt to filter out the main factors which can affect the Korean population dynamics. Furthermore, this paper shows that our approach can be used for the optimization and evaluation of the public policies with a pension policy example.