New Method of Time Series Analysis and Its Application to Wolf's Sunspot Number Data

Abstract

A newly devised procedure of time series analysis, which is a linearized version of the nonlinear least squares method combined with the maximum entropy spectral analysis method, was proposed and applied to the annual sunspot number data from 1700 to 1991. Multiple periodicities of the temporal variation were elucidated in detail. The solar cycle of a 11.04-year period accompanied with the solar cycle multiplets, the periods of 50.41 years, the so-called “Yoshimura cycle”, and 107.11 years corresponding to the cycle of century-scale minima, for example, were clearly observed. The optimum least squares fitting curve for the data was extended over the past two millennia and the next millennium. The past grand minima such as the Maunder minimum were confirmed in the past extrapolation curve, and the next centennial minimum was predicted to occur between 2000 and 2030.