New Method for Prediction of Water Cut vs Development Time in Waterflooding Oilfield

Abstract

Production performance prediction in a waterflooding field, We hope to get directly varying rule of water cut vs development time. Water drive type curve can predict the relationship of water cut vs cumulative oil production, but lacks development time index; Production prediction model can predict the relationship of cumulative oil production, oil production rate vs development time, but can ’ t predict varying rule of water cut. This paper associates Zhang Jinqing’s water drive type curve that can adapt to different water cut laws in different water? Drive oilfields with HCZ (Hu-Chen-Zhang) production prediction model, and gets a new prediction model for water cut vs development time, and can be used for whole process prediction of water cut in oilfield development. The new prediction model can overcome the limitations of water drive type curve that lacks development time and production prediction model that can ’ t predict water cut, and effectively compensates for the deficiencies of the two methods. Data calculated result from real cases indicates that the prediction model agrees well with the actual development data, has relatively high prediction accuracy, and can accurately predict the changes of water cut vs development time. It can meet the demand of production performance prediction analysis, which is a guidance for oilfield adjustment plan and development program.