New City Strategic Transport Planning Based on Scenario Planning

Abstract

Strategic planning must take full account of the unknown and flexibility according to its characteristics of foresee ability and inclusiveness, while the traditional methods of urban strategic transport planning is lack of the strain capacity to deal with a variety of uncertainties. Based on the analysis of the logic essential of scenario planning and limitations of traditional methods, the proportion of inter-regional passenger trip and motorized trip mode are identified as the two main driving forces. The typical transport system's scenarios are described and the operational states of transport system under different scenarios are also evaluated. The evaluation results indicate that the achievement of the scenario with favorable impact to urban development requires more balanced land-use policies and long-term public transit priority policies as the supporting measures.