Network structure-based interventions on spatial spread of epidemics in metapopulation networks.

Abstract

Mathematical modeling of epidemics is fundamental to understand the mechanism of the disease outbreak and provides helpful indications for effectiveness of interventions for policy makers. The metapopulation network model has been used in the analysis of epidemic dynamics by taking individual migration between patches into account. However, so far, most of the previous studies unrealistically assume that transmission rates within patches are the same, neglecting the nonuniformity of intervention measures in hindering epidemics. Here, based on the assumption that interventions deployed in a patch depend on its population size or economic level, which have shown a positive correlation with the patch's degree in networks, we propose a metapopulation network model to explore a network structure-based intervention strategy, aiming at understanding the interplay between intervention strategy and other factors including mobility patterns, initial population, as well as the network structure. Our results demonstrate that interventions to patches with different intensity are able to suppress the epidemic spreading in terms of both the epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. Specifically, the intervention strategy targeting the patches with high degree is able to efficiently suppress epidemics. In addition, a detrimental effect is also observed depending on the interplay between the intervention measures and the initial population distribution. Our study opens a path for understanding epidemic dynamics and provides helpful insights into the implementation of countermeasures for the control of epidemics in reality.