Epidemic dynamics for time-dependent transmission rate based on viral load dynamics: multi infection stage EBCM approach

Abstract

Many epidemic modeling studies rely on the common assumption that the disease transmission rate between individuals is constant. However, in reality, transmission rates depend on the time-varying viral load of the infected individual. The time-dependent transmission rate has the potential to affect the spread of an epidemic. In this study, the influenza and SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate profiles were developed based on the viral load of infected individuals and dose-response curves. In addition, a new epidemic model, the multi-infectious stage edge-based compartment model, was proposed to apply the transmission rate profile to epidemic dynamics in both static and temporal networks. It was determined that in terms of the final epidemic size there is no discrepancy between the constant and time-dependent transmission rates in the static network. However, the time at which the infected fraction peaks, and the peak infection fraction are dependent on the transmission rate profile. However, in temporal networks, the final epidemic size for the constant transmission rate is higher than that for the time-dependent transmission rate. In conclusion, the time-dependent transmission rate strongly affects the epidemic dynamics.