Nested regional climate–chemistry simulations for central Europe

Abstract

The potential impact of global climate change on regional meteorology and near-surface ozone concentrations in central Europe and the effect of model resolution on the simulated quantities were studied using a coupled climate–chemistry model. Nested simulations with a horizontal resolution of 60 km for Europe and 20 km for central Europe were performed for two time slices of about 10 years representing present-day and future climate conditions. The model results indicate that increased solar radiation due to decreased cloud cover, higher temperatures, and enhanced isoprene emissions promote the formation of tropospheric ozone in central Europe under future climate conditions. Depending on the region, the increase of the mean daily maximum ranges between 2 and 10 ppb and exceedances of the threshold of 60 ppb for the 8-hourly mean as well as the AOT40 index were found to increase considerably. General tendencies in the regional distributions of near-surface ozone were similar for 60- and 20-km resolutions. However, pronounced regional differences were found for some regions due to stronger smoothing of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions as well as flattened topography for the 60-km resolution.