NEBView of Development Potential And Markets For Heavy Crude Oil

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Introduction IN OCTOBER, 1976, the National Energy Board ("NEB" or "the Board") held its third public hearing inquiring into matters related to the supply of and requirements for indigenous crude oil and equivalent. One of the important aspects of the hearing was the position taken by many submittors regarding the development potential and markets for heavy crude oil. It was argued that the regulated reduction of crude oil and equivalent exports has severely restricted the market opportunities and the development of heavy crude oil. Among the reasons advanced for special treatment of heavy crude oil were:Canadian heavy crude oil differs significantly from light crude oil in quality, refining characteristics, markets served and production circumstances;there are proportionately greater prospects for increasing the current production levels of heavy than light crude oil;additions to heavy crude oil reserves and producibility could add substantially to Canada's self-reliance in oil;experimentation with enhanced oil recovery would proceed faster with assured marketability of heavy crude oil;Canada's balance-of-payments position would be improved with larger exports of heavy crude oil and greater domestic use of developed resources. The NEB, for the most part, accepted these arguments and, commencing on January 1, 1977, began on an interim basis to license for export monthly all heavy oil production surplus to Canadian requirements. The Board's complete findings were made public in a report released in February, 1977(1). Among the findings was a decision to continue the export of heavy crude oil surplus to current domestic needs provided that forecast supply exceeded forecast requirements for a period of 10 years. Overview of Crude Oil Supply Before discussing heavy crude oil supply, let us first put this resource in perspective by reviewing the over-all crude oil supply situation and previous Board decisions regarding crude oil exports. During the 1960's, crude oil reserves were being established at a rate far exceeding Canadian requirements. Annual reserves additions exceeded crude oil production each year, as shown on Figure 1. As these reserves additions were developed and the appropriate production and transportation facilities put into place, Canada's net dependence on imports was gradually eliminated. Increased access to United States markets led to a five-fold increase in exports of crude oil during the ten-year period preceding 1970. The historical plot of total Canadian production and consumption(2), presented here as Figure 2, demonstrates this gradual change in our balance of trade in liquid petroleum. However, at the same time that our domestic crude oil supply and requirements were coming into balance (ca. 1970), annual reserves additions began declining rapidly. Although there were hopes in many quarters that another big exploration play was just around the corner, as time passed it became increasingly evident that additional major oil discoveries in the conventional areas in Western Canada were unlikely. In December, 1972, the NEB released a report(3) entitled "Potential Limitations of Canadian Petroleum Supplies."