Abstract
Near-field tsunami propagation both in shallow water environments and bore-like wave propagation on land are conducted in this
 study to obtain fundamental knowledge on the tsunami hazard potential in the city of Padang, Western Sumatra, Republic of
 Indonesia. As the region proves a huge seismic moment deficit which has progressively accumulated since the last recorded
 major earthquakes in 1797 and 1833, this investigation focuses on most reasonable seismic sources and possibly triggered nearshore
 tsunamis in order to develop upgraded disaster mitigations programs in this densely-populated urban agglomeration located
 on the western shore of Sumatra Island. Observations from continuous Global Positioning Satellite (cGPS) systems and
 supplementary coral growth studies confirm a much greater probability of occurrence that a major earthquake and subsequent
 tsunami are likely to strike the region in the near future. Newly surveyed and processed sets of geodata have been collected and
 used to progress most plausible rupture scenarios to approximate the extent and magnitudes of a further earthquake. Based upon
 this novel understanding, the present analysis applies two hydronumerical codes to simulate most probable tsunami run-up and
 subsequent inundations in the city of Padang in very fine resolution. Run-up heights and flow-depths are determined stemming
 from these most plausible rupture scenarios. Evaluation of outcome and performance of both numerical tools regarding impacts
 of surge flow and bore-like wave fronts encountering the coast and inundating the city are thoroughly carried out. Results are
 discussed not only for further scientific purposes, i.e. benchmark tests, but also to disseminate main findings to responsible
 authorities in Padang with the objective to distribute the most probable dataset of plausible tsunami inundations as well as to
 address valuable insights and knowledge for effective counter measures, i.e. evacuation routes and shelter building. Following
 evacuation simulations based on rational assumptions and simplifications reveal a most alerting result as about 260.000 people
 are living in the highly exposed potential tsunami inundation area in the city of Padang of which more than 90.000 people will
 need more than 30 min. to evacuate to safe areas.
Highlights
AND MOTIVATION Tsunamis are one of the largest and most devastating naturally created geophysical extreme hazards which put countless coastal stretches worldwide at risk
The great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and succeeding tsunami of December 2004 caused disastrous property damage and loss of life. It underscored the importance of understanding and studying the inherent seismic and tsunami hazards of subduction zones and to progress the development of sensor networks and foster public policy to realize global end-to-end tsunami early warning systems (Bernard et al 2006)
On the other hand side topography of the coastal hinterland is generally of higher elevation in the digital terrain model (DTM) than in the coarse digital elevation model (DEM) relying on the SRTM data, which are known for considerable inaccuracies in vertical magnitudes (Farr et al 2007)
Summary
AND MOTIVATION Tsunamis are one of the largest and most devastating naturally created geophysical extreme hazards which put countless coastal stretches worldwide at risk. McCloskey et al conclude from seismic records and subsequent calculations that this particular 30 September 2009 event did not rupture the Sunda megathrust, so that it insignificantly relaxed the accumulated stress on the Mentawai segment and that the megathrust strain-energy budget remains substantially unchanged They argue that the imposed threat of an earthquake on the Mentawai patch is unabated and expected to rupture the region within the decades generating a possibly devastating earthquake followed by a triggered massive tsunami that is most likely to strike nearby cities and numerous smaller coastal towns along the shores of West Sumatra. Various remotely sensed and hydrographical data sets were acquired for Padang as well as field surveys were conducted, i.e. containing household questionnaires, to meet the terms of an overall accurate data basis
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