Abstract
In order to provide a better benchmark for climate simulation programs, climate data at Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Global Summary of the Day (GSOD) archived by the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) are used to ascertain the nature of climate change over the last century. After data validation, about 6000 stations are considered globally to determine the change in mean temperature, and about 5000 stations to determine that change in maximum and minimum temperatures. Global nature of temperature and its change are presented separately for January and July. Both maximum and minimum daily temperatures are used in the analysis. Trend of global change in annual precipitation is also reported here. Least square linear regression is used to ascertain the nature of these changes. Global nature of temperatures in both January and July show bimodal distributions, with the geographical region between the tropics in one mode and the region outside the tropic in another mode. The individual distributions of temperatures of both these regions show separate and similar histograms. Results indicate that over the last century, temperature in January increased more than that during July. Furthermore the minimum temperature in each case increased more than the maximum temperature. Ten separate estimates of temperature change are obtained from the data presented here using different methods. Considering all these estimates, the mean rise in temperature during January was 2.19°C, and during July was 1.72°C. The geographical nature of the rise in temperature shows that though it rises in most locations, the temperature also reduces along eastern Asia, some parts of central Russia, along south-eastern Australia, and along the east coast of the United States. Predominant rise in temperature is mostly over Europe, and in the arctic. Change in precipitation shows that though there is significant reduction rainfall globally, rainfall increases along the equator, in areas around the Gulf of Mexico, along eastern Asia, along the western coast of India, and along the eastern coast of Australia.
Highlights
Climate change and its impacts on society and humans have been extensively studied
This study will try to present the global trend of change in climate over the last century. This will be done by using the observational records at Global Historic Climatologic Network (GHCN) as well as Global Summary of the Day (GSOD)
It was suspected that the effect of Hadley circulation might have an impact on the estimation of the temperature change; the results indicate that there is no substantial impact
Summary
Climate change and its impacts on society and humans have been extensively studied. Good et al [1] and Gosling et al [2] have provided an extensive review of large-scale change in the climate system, and its impact on different aspects of human lives. Mills [16] argues that there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with the effects of climate extremes on human health, as there is a high degree of uncertainty in the prediction of the change in climate variables. These impacts of climate change are predicted considering a rise in temperature as a result of change in climate. The prediction of the rise in temperature over the 21st century by IPCC varies from 0.3 ̊C to 6.4 ̊C [8] These variations arise from the fact that most of these predictions are built upon numerical simulation of the climate processes
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