Abstract
The use of natural analog studies in performance assessments has been widely discussed and debated, but its accomplishment has been limited. Given recognized uncertainties and challenges, scientific contributions to performance assessments and support for the validity of performance assessment models are valuable from all possible sources, including natural analog studies. The conceptual basis for geologic disposal of nuclear waste and for performance assessments relies on scientific expertise based largely on studies of natural systems analogous to possible repository systems, i.e., natural analogs. Natural analog studies offer contributions to model validation based both on inductive and deductive reasoning. The utility of analog studies as a deductive tool in performance assessment is enhanced by specificity of the analog system to the repository system. As geologic sites are selected and repository designs detailed, the use of analog data in supporting deductive performance assessments should increase. Consideration of Yucca Mountain for the proposed US high level nuclear waste repository affords site specificity conducive to applications of natural analog data in performance assessment. The primary use of Penia Blanca natural analog data in recent Yucca Mountain performance assessments stems from observations of mineral products formed by alteration of natural uraninite, an analog of spent fuel. Alternate performance assessment source term models based on the Penia Blanca oxidation rate model and the schoepite solubility model yield lower, yet comparable estimated doses than the base case model in the NRC performance assessment for Yucca Mountain.
Published Version
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