Abstract
Rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions require an almost complete transformation of the energy system to low carbon energy sources. Little consideration has been given to the potential adverse carbon consequences associated with the technology transition. This paper considers the embodied emissions that will occur to replace the UK’s fossil fuel-reliant energy supply with low carbon sources. The analysis generates a number of representative scenarios where emissions embodied in energy systems are integrated within current national climate and energy policy objectives. The embodied emissions associated with a new low carbon energy system are lower than the emissions reduction associated with the low carbon energy sources, confirming that there is a carbon return on investment. However, even if the UK reaches its 2050 territorial climate target, it is estimated that by 2050 an additional 200 Mt CO2 emissions are generated overseas (compared to 128 Mt generated within the UK) in the production of imported fuels and infrastructure components. The cost-optimal model results suggest that more electrification would need to occur, supported by nuclear energy, mainly in replacement of natural gas to mitigate these emissions. However, due to a number of deployment barriers, other policy interventions along the energy supply chain are likely needed, which are discussed alongside the model results. There could be more emphasis on an absolute reduction in energy demand to reduce the scale of change needed in supplying energy; new business models oriented towards performance and not sales; and existing trade schemes and international effort-sharing frameworks could be extended.
Highlights
The fifth assessment report of the IPCC (Bruckner et al 2014) outlines the requirements for a fundamental transformation to a low carbon energy system, without delay (Luderer et al 2013)
Despite reducing operational combustion emissions, the building of a new and capital intensive low carbon energy infrastructure will release GHG emissions associated with its material requirements, construction, distribution, maintenance and decommissioning (Giesekam et al 2014, Müller et al 2013), hereinafter referred to as embodied or indirect emissions
CO2 was embodied in the energy system. 85 % of the embodied emissions were emitted outside the UK
Summary
The fifth assessment report of the IPCC (Bruckner et al 2014) outlines the requirements for a fundamental transformation to a low carbon energy system, without delay (Luderer et al 2013). Beyond theoretical (Suh 2004, Suh and Huppes 2005, Suh et al 2004) and applied (Wiedmann et al 2011, Acquaye et al 2011, Crawford 2009) developments in life cycle impact assessments of energy technologies in the 2000s, there have been methodological contributions to improve our understanding of the environmental impacts of in-use and fixed capital stocks (e.g. buildings, infrastructure and products in which people derive a service) (Pauliuk and Müller 2014, Pauliuk et al 2015), and in terms of energy pathways (Hertwich et al 2014, Hammond et al 2013, Igos et al 2015) These have not been applied to understanding implications for revising and setting national and international climate policies when emissions transfers are accounted for in the energy system. Such results can be compared with reduction targets but do not suggest how the energy pathways would change when including the embodied energy system emissions in mitigation targets
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