The empirical probability of integrating CSP and its cost optimal configuration in a low carbon energy system of EUMENA

Abstract

Ongoing cost reduction of low carbon energies allows an increasing implementation of such technologies for climate protection targets. How decreasing cost develop in the future is high-grade uncertain. Thus cost sensitivities analyses of an expert based cost-range are needed to show if specific technologies can be cost advantageous for an energy system. In this paper a low carbon and cost-optimal energy system of Europe, Middle East and North Africa (EUMENA) in the year 2050 is analysed with regard to concentrating solar power (CSP). Cost sensitivity analyses show how frequently an integration of CSP in the energy system is. This frequency is defined as empirical probability of technological integration (EPTI). An energy system model allows a suitable analysis framework with tangible competitive technologies such as renewable energies, nuclear power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS). As a highlight the EPTI of an export of CSP from MENA to EU via point-to-point high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines is analysed. Such CSP-HVDC power plants show an EPTI of up to 66%. CSP in MENA and southern EU show an average EPTI of 85%, nuclear power plants of 32% and CCS of 50%. The cost sensitivity analysis shows additionally the cost optimal configuration of CSP and CSP-HVDC. This clarifies the role of CSP and CSP-HVDC for the energy system as a dispatchable base and medium load power plant depending on the region inside EUMENA.