National and interregional models of water demand, land use, and agricultural policies

Abstract

This national study deals with the optimum allocation of land and water resources in 223 agricultural‐producing or land regions, 51 water supply regions, and 27 market regions of the United States. It analyzes these questions: Will the nation be able to meet its urban and industrial needs for water in the year 2000? Will these allocations require a smaller or redistributed use of water in agriculture? To what extent can land be substituted for irrigation water in attaining the nation's domestic and export food demands? From which crops and regions should water be diverted in attaining an efficient agriculture and in meeting non‐agricultural uses of water? The study is based on programing models of 3220 equations (including 1650 fixed bounds) and 5426 real variables in the framework of interregional competition and comparative advantage. It estimates the extent to which land could be substituted for water and vice versa in an efficient future use of resources. Jt indicates where and to what extent water should be reallocated among areas of agriculture and between agricultural, urban, and industrial uses. It analyzes the impacts of alternative futures on the demand for water. Alternatives examined are those of water prices, population levels, farming technology, export quantities, and agricultural policies. In general, the results show that, if agricultural and water development policies were changed over the future, the nation would not be faced with an overall water scarcity, and even surplus food producing capacity could exist with the use of less water for agricultural purposes.