中国温带旱柳物候期对气候变化的时空响应

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 中国温带旱柳物候期对气候变化的时空响应 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201310082411 作者: 作者单位: 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京大学城市与环境学院,中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京大学城市与环境学院,北京大学城市与环境学院,北京大学城市与环境学院 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(41071027,40871029) Spatiotemporal response of Salix matsudana's phenophases to climate change in China's temperate zone Author: Affiliation: College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education,Peking University,,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education,Peking University,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education,Peking University,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education,Peking University,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education,Peking University Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:为了揭示中国温带植物物候随时间变化和植物物候对气候变化响应的空间格局及其生态机制,利用52个站点1986-2005年的旱柳展叶始期、开花始期、果实成熟期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的物候数据,分析其时间序列的线性趋势,并通过建立基于最佳期间日均温的物候时间模型,确定物候发生日期对气温年际变化的响应。在研究的时段内,区域平均旱柳展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期的发生日期分别以-4.2 d/10 a、-3.8 d/10 a和-3.3 d/10 a的平均速率显著提前,而区域平均旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期则分别呈不显著推迟和以2.4 d/10 a的平均速率显著推迟的趋势。单站展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期发生日期的线性趋势以提前为主,显著提前的站点分别占40%、41%和29%;叶变色始期发生日期呈显著提前和显著推迟趋势的站点数相当,分别占17%和19%;落叶末期发生日期的线性趋势以推迟为主,显著推迟的站点占23%。各站展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期发生日期的线性趋势空间序列与相应的最佳期间日均温的线性趋势空间序列之间呈显著负相关,表明一个站点前期气温升高的速率越快,该站这些物候期发生日期提前的速率就越快。在物候期对气温年际变化的响应方面,区域平均春季最佳期间日均温每升高1℃,展叶始期、开花始期和果实成熟期的发生日期分别提前3.08 d、2.83 d和3.54 d;区域平均秋季最佳期间日均温每升高1℃,叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期分别推迟1.69 d和2.28 d。单站展叶始期和落叶末期发生日期对气温年际变化的响应表现出在温暖地区的站点比在寒冷地区的站点更为敏感的特点。总体上看,基于日均温的物候时间模型对春、夏季物候期的模拟精度明显高于对秋季物候期的模拟精度。建立了基于最佳期间日均温和日累积降水量的改进秋季物候模型,该模型使旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的模拟精度显著提高。由此可见,旱柳叶变色始期和落叶末期的发生日期受到前期气温和降水量的综合影响。 Abstract:Simulating temporal and spatial relationships between occurrence dates of plant phenophases and climatic factors is crucial not only for predicting phenological responses to climate change but also for identifying the carbon-uptake period and examining the seasonal exchanges of water and energy between land surface and atmosphere. The latter in turn affects the global carbon cycle and climate change. In order to reveal the spatial pattern and its ecological mechanism of temporal variation of plant phenology and plant phenology response to climate change in China's temperate zone, we used Salix matsudana's phenology data of first leaf unfolding (LU), first flowering (FF), fruit maturing (FM), first leaf coloration (LC) and the end of leaf fall (LF) at 52 stations during 1986-2005 to analyze the linear trend of phenological time series and identify the response of phenological occurrence dates to interannual temperature variations by establishing daily mean air temperature-based temporal phenology models. During the research period, regional mean occurrence dates of Salix matsudana's LU, FF and FM significantly advanced at average rates of -4.2, -3.8 and -3.3 days per decade, respectively, whereas regional mean occurrence dates of Salix matsudana's LC and LF indicated a nonsignificant delayed trend and a significant delayed trend at an average rate of 2.4 days per decade, respectively. At single stations, occurrence dates of Salix matsudana's LU, FF and FM significantly advanced at 40%, 41% and 29% of stations, respectively; occurrence dates of Salix matsudana's LC significantly advanced at 17% of stations and delayed at 19% of stations; occurrence dates of Salix matsudana's LF significantly delayed at 23% of stations. Spatial series of linear trends in occurrence dates of Salix matsudana's LU, FF and FM at all stations correlate negatively with spatial series of linear trends in corresponding daily mean air temperatures during the optimum length periods, namely, the quicker the preceding air temperatures increased at a station, the quicker the phenological occurrence dates advanced at the station. With respect to phenological response to interannual temperature variations, a 1℃ increase in regional mean spring air temperatures during the optimum length periods may induce an advancement of 3.08 days, 2.83 days and 3.54 days in regional mean occurrence dates of Salix matsudana's LU, FF and FM, respectively, whereas a 1℃ increase in regional mean autumn air temperatures during the optimum length periods may cause a delay of 1.69 days and 2.28 days in regional mean occurrence dates of Salix matsudana's LC and LF, respectively. At single stations, the response of occurrence dates of Salix matsudana's LU and LF to interannual temperature variations was more sensitive at warmer locations than at colder locations. Overall, simulation precision of daily mean air temperature-based temporal phenology models for spring and summer phenophases was obviously higher than that for autumn phenophases. Therefore, we constructed daily mean air temperature and daily accumulative precipitation-based autumn phenology models. The revised models significantly enhanced simulation precision of Salix matsudana's LC and LF. This indicates that occurrence dates of Salix matsudana's LC and LF were triggered by the combined influence of preceding air temperature and precipitation. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献