Phenological responses of apple tree to climate warming in the main apple production areas in northern China

Abstract

To reveal the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of apple's phenology and their critical response time period and intensity to the temperature change in the main production areas of northern China, we chose Fushan, Wanrong and Akesu to respresent the Bohai Gulf, the Loess Plateau and Xinjiang apple production areas, respectively. Apple's phenology data of buds opening (BO), first leaf unfolding (LU), first flowering (FF), fruit maturing (FM), end of leaf coloring (LC) and the end of leaf fall (LF) at the three stations during 1996-2018 were used to analyze the changes of phenological occurrence dates and different growth stage lengths. Partial least squares (PLS) regression was applied to identify the impacts of climate warming on different phenology events at daily resolution. Results showed that regional mean occurrence dates of apple's BO, LU and FF advanced by a rate of 0.36, 0.33 and 0.23 day per year, respectively. However, apple's LF postponed by 0.68 d·a-1. The FM and LC showed different trends among all the sites. The length of fruit growing period (FG) and that of tree growing period (TG) extended at average rates of 1.20 and 0.82 day per year. Apple's spring phenophases dates at all stations correlated negatively with mean temperature during early January to pre-phenophases date, with a 1 ℃ increase inducing an advancement of 3.70, 3.47 and 3.48 days for apple's BO, LU and FF, respectively. In contrast, apple's autumn phenophases correlated positively with mean temperature 21-72 days before the phenophases date, and its correlation with mean temperature was lower than the correlation for spring phenophases. Generally, the effect of temperature on spring phenophase was stronger than that of autumn phenophase, and the extension of FG and TG was mainly caused by the advance of spring phenophase. The responses of apple's phenophases to climate warming differed across all the stations. Temperature had the greatest impact on the development of apple industry in Akesu, less in Wanrong, and with the least influence in Fushan. Our results could provide theoretical basis for response to climate change for apple industry in different areas of China.