能源预测预警理论与方法研究进展

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 能源预测预警理论与方法研究进展 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201306091520 作者: 作者单位: 北京师范大学环境学院,北京师范大学环境学院,北京师范大学环境学院 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAK30B03); 国家自然科学基金(41271543, 91325302); 国家基金委创新研究群体科学基金(51121003); 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20130003110027) Advances in theories and methods of energy forecasting and early warning Author: Affiliation: State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:能源作为一种稀缺性的战略资源是国民经济增长和社会进步的物质基础,但是随着化石能源耗竭及能源使用造成的环境问题日趋严重,能源安全问题逐渐成为关注的焦点,而能源预测预警也成为能源系统科学领域的新兴学科,其内容包含能源安全理论、基于模型的能源供需预测和基于安全评价指标体系的能源预警等方面内容。通过系统回顾能源安全的理论及其演变的历程,重点综述了自上而下、自下而上和混合建模3种建模思路的能源预测模型,探讨了三类模型的优点和局限性,并根据能源安全预警评价指标浓缩信息的程度,将现有预警评价体系划分单个型指标评价体系和聚合型指标评价体系两大类。通过对以上研究内容的总结分析,明确了当前能源预测预警研究各领域的研究进展,及其在理论和应用方面的优势与不足。在未来研究中,建议从供应链的角度出发,考虑能源系统内部各因素及与外部因素的相互作用,构建基于链式的预警体系,以有效弥补现有研究中的不足。 Abstract:Energy as a scarce strategy resource is the physical base for national economic development and social progress. Along with the fossil fuel depletion and environmental problems induced by energy utilization, the early-warning of energy security has gradually attracted more attention and thereby emerged as a rising discipline of energy sciences, covering the energy security theory, energy demand forecasting models and energy security early warning index systems. After reviewing the evolution of energy security theory, we summarized the merits and limitations of three kinds of commonly used forecasting models including top-down models, bottom-up models and hybrid energy models. Top-down models such as CGE could give a detailed description about the interaction among different economic sectors. However, these models fail to provide a concrete description for energy technologies. For bottom-up model, although a detailed consideration of technologies related to energy production and consumption has been incorporated into modeling, few economies can be described adequately based on such an engineering perspective. In order to integrate the advantage of both modelling approaches, more and more hybrid models have been constructed to overcome the weakness in recent years. Although more dimensions such as environmental, social, and economic aspects have been integrated to the hybrid model, the simulation for water environment and biodiversity is still insufficient. In terms of the modelling technique, the issues like boundary difference, database difference for hybrid model need to be concerned. Additionally, the current energy demand forecasting models can only predict the future energy demand without consideration of energy security. It is therefore necessary to develop the energy security evaluation indicator system. The existing energy security evaluation indicator systems can be divided into two categories: individual indicator-based system and aggregate indicator-based system. Individual indicator system attempts to employ various individual indicators such as reserve to production ratio, strategic fuel stocks, and net energy import dependency to quantitatively assess the energy security level, while aggregated indicator system as a combination of individual indicators usually develops a composite index to evaluate the energy security. Despite many efforts have been devoted to energy demand forecasting models and energy security evaluation indicator system, a universal early-warning framework of energy security, however, has not been constructed. The limitation for current early-warning system of energy security can be summarized as follows: 1) Interaction mechanism among the dimension of energy security, environmental protection, and economy for energy security evaluation indicator is still unclear. 2) Theoretical research and practical application for existing early-warning system of energy security remain seperate. 3) Weights of the indicators are still determined by subjective judgment rather than objective methods. According to the summary of advances in various energy forecasting and early warning studies and their advantages and limitations as well, it is suggested that in the future research, a chain-based early warning system should be established in perspective of supply chain considering the interactions between internal and external factors of the energy system so as to promote the current energy early-warning system. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献