基于模糊综合评判法的曲靖市农业可持续发展探析

Abstract

通过建立曲靖农业可持续发展评价指标体系(农村经济指标、社会发展指标、资源永续指标和环境改善指标)，采用模糊综合评判法对曲靖农业可持续发展状况进行评估。结果表明：曲靖农业可持续发展各项指标的总隶属度为0.803，曲靖农业可持续发展的程度已基本隶属于目标值，但尚存在0.197的距离，尤其是曲靖农村经济增长指标仅为0.595，农村经济发展水平与目标值存在较大差距，差距值达0.405。从各类指标体系的子指标看，15项子指标中有7项指标的隶属度达到1，占总指标数的46.7%，表明这些指标是曲靖农业可持续发展的强项，隶属度小于0.5的指标有人均粮食产量、人均农业产值，这表明曲靖农业可持续发展的最大限制因素是农村经济增长指标。 Through the evaluation index system of agricultural sustainable development of Qujing (rural economic indicators, social indicators of development, sustainable resource indicators and envi-ronmental improvement index), the sustainable development of agriculture in Qujing is evaluated by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that: the indexes of sustainable agricultural development in Qujing of the total membership is 0.803, which indicates that the sustainable development of agriculture in Qujing basically belongs to the target value, but there are still 0.197 of the distance, especially the Qujing rural economic growth index was only 0.595, there is a big gap between the level and target of rural economic development, the gap value is 0.405. From the index of the index system, the 7 index of 15 indexes’ degree is 1, accounting for the total index number 46.7%, indicating that these indicators are the strengths of Qujing agricultural sustainable development. The index of less than 0.5 has per capita grain output and per capita agricultural output, which indicates that the maximum limit of the sustainable development of agriculture is the rural economic growth index in Qujing.