新疆三种独尾草的适宜分布及其对未来气候变化的响应

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 新疆三种独尾草的适宜分布及其对未来气候变化的响应 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202110152910 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（41561007，41261011）；新疆维吾尔自治区草原总站草原生态修复治理补助项目（XJCYZZ202007） Suitable distributions of three species of Eremurus in Xinjiang and their responses to future climatic changes Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:研究国内仅分布于新疆的3种短命植物阿尔泰独尾草（Eremurus altaicus）、粗柄独尾草（Eremurus inderiensis）和异翅独尾草（Eremurus anisopterus）的适宜分布及其对未来气候的可能响应，对新疆短命植物资源的分布、利用与科学保护具有重要意义。共收集了64个自然分布点，筛选了6个气候因子和2个地形因子数据，利用MaxEnt模型和地理信息系统ArcGIS软件模拟了当前气候情景下3种独尾草的生态适宜性，探讨影响3种植物分布的主导因子及其数值范围，预测3种独尾草的适宜分布对未来气候变化（2001-2040年、2041-2080年，基于温室气体中等排放情景：SSP2-4.5共享社会经济路径）的可能响应。结果表明：（1）基准气候下，3种独尾草在新疆的适宜分布存在较大差异：阿尔泰独尾草主要分布于伊犁河谷、天山北麓、阿尔泰山中段和准噶尔西部山地；两种沙生独尾草均分布于天山中段的绿洲-荒漠区过渡带，古尔班通古特沙漠西南部沙地；（2）最干月降水量（1-25mm）主要限制了阿尔泰独尾草的适宜分布；温度季节性变动指数（1150-1672）主要限制了两种沙生独尾草的适宜分布；（3）2001-2040年和2041-2080年，3种独尾草的适宜分布整体均呈缩减趋势：阿尔泰独尾草向天山北麓和准噶尔西部山地略微缩减；粗柄独尾草和异翅独尾草向古尔班通古特沙漠南缘略微缩减。 Abstract:In China,Eremurus altaicus,Eremurus inderiensis and Eremurus anisopterus are only distributed in Xinjiang.It is of great significance to the distribution, utilization and scientific protection of ephemeral plant resources in Xinjiang to study the suitable distributions of Eremurus altaicus, Eremurus inderiensis and Eremurus anisopterus and their possible responses to future climatic changes. A total of 64 natural distribution sites, 6 climate factors and 2 topographic factors were collected in this study. MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were used to simulate the ecological suitability of the three species of Eremurus under current climate scenario. To investigate the dominant factors influencing the distribution of the three species and their numerical ranges, and to predict the possible responses of the suitable distribution of the three species to future climatic changes (2001-2040、2041-2080,the society is a medium greenhouse gas emission scenario:based on SSP2-4.5 shard socio-economic path).The research results show that:(1) Under the basic climate, there is great differences in the suitable distribution of the three species in Xinjiang:Eremurus altaicus is mainly distributed in Ili River Valley, northern foot of the Tianshan Mountain, middle of the Altai Mountain and the Western Junggar Mountains. Both of psammophytes are distributed in the oasis-desert transition zone in the central Tianshan Mountains and the sandy land in the southwest of Gurbantunggut Desert; (2) The maximum monthly precipitation (1-25mm) mainly limited the suitable distribution of Eremurus altaicus, the temperature seasonal variation index (1150-1672) mainly limited the suitable distribution of Eremurus inderiensis and Eremurus anisopterus; (3) During 2001-2040 and 2041-2080, the suitable distribution of the three species of Eremurus show a decreasing trend as a whole:the Eremurus altaicus is reduced slightly towards the northern foot of the Tianshan Mountain and the Western Junggar Mountains; Eremurus inderiensis and Eremurus anisopterus shrink slightly towards the southern edge of the Gurbantunggut Desert. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献