天山北坡家庭牧场复合系统对极端气候的响应过程

Abstract

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 天山北坡家庭牧场复合系统对极端气候的响应过程 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201206030804 作者: 作者单位: 中国农业科学院草原研究所;中国农业科学院研究生院;兰州大学草地农业科技学院,中国农业科学院草原研究所,中国农业科学院草原研究所,中国农业科学院草原研究所,中国农业科学院草原研究所 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(70933004;71103185);公益性行业(农业)科研专项(201003019);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(1610332012201;1610332012002);内蒙古自然科学基金重大项目(2010ZD08) The response process to extreme climate events of the household compound system in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain Author: Affiliation: Grassland Research Institute ,Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences,,,, Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:在草原牧区,家庭牧场作为取代游牧制度而产生的新生事物,其对极端气候响应过程的研究尚未见报道。以"极端气候敏感性-影响途径-响应方式"为分析框架,基于问卷调查方法,研究了天山北坡山地草原牧民对极端气候的响应过程。结果表明:1)天山北坡1980-2009年冬季雪灾、秋季旱灾风险趋于增大,家庭牧场草料储备不足、畜种结构经济驱动型增加了对极端气候的敏感性;2)旱灾、雪灾是影响家庭牧场的主要极端气候类型,其作用介质为牲畜和草场;3)自适应与外力适应是牧户响应极端气候的2种主要形式,其中购买草料是最主要的响应策略;4)通过Probit模型估计显示,极端气候认知、家庭特征、资产状况与牧户间适应行为选择有显著的关系。研究认为,家庭牧场对极端气候短期响应的反馈过程主要围绕草、畜2因子展开,基于降水波动的周期性,牧户长期响应形成了家庭牧场生产周期。 Abstract:The household pasture is a new alternative grazing pattern, replacing nomadic way. The study on the response process of household compound system to extreme climate has not been reported. Taking "extreme climate sensitivity-impact way-response mode" as the analysis framework, the herders' response process to extreme climate is conducted in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain by means of questionnaire. The results show that: 1) The risk index of winter snowstorm and autumn drought increased with years in 1980-2009. Moreover, the less forage and feed structure driven by market economy make the household pasture more sensitive to extreme climate; 2) Drought and snowstorm are the main extreme climate types which influence households by livestock and pasture; 3) Self-adaption and external adaption are the main response model of herder to extreme climate, and buying forage is the main response strategy; 4) Probit model shows that the herders' adaptive behaviors have significant relationship with extreme climate perception by herders, family characteristics and properties. The results indicate that the short-term response and feedback of household to extreme climate events primarily involved two factors, grass and livestock. In addition, the long-term response of herder to the periodic precipitation fluctuations promotes the formation of production cycle of household pasture. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献