Evaluating the variability and trends in extreme climate events in the Kashmir Valley using PRECIS RCM simulations

Abstract

Climate is the major force that shapes the Earth. Under climate change conditions, the extreme events shall occur more frequently with greater force for devastation. In this study, Predicting Regional climate for impact studies-Regional climate model (PRECIS RCM) was used to analyze the trends in temperature and precipitation using climate indices for the Kashmir valley, western Himalaya. We analyzed 27 climate extremity indices using PRECIS RCM simulations for a baseline (1961–1990) and future scenario (1990–2098) using RCLIMDEX model. Trend analysis was carried out using Mann–Kendall test method and Theil-Sen estimator. PRECIS RCM covers Kashmir valley in 14 grids of 50 km × 50 km horizontal resolution each. The climatic grids for baseline data (1961–1990) indicated no noteworthy patterns in hot and cold extreme indices. However, climate grids for future simulations (1990–2098) showed an increasing trend in all hot extreme events but no significant trend in cold extremes. The futuristic frequency and intensity in the extreme temperature events showed significant increase compared to extreme precipitation events. The overall results indicated that grids pertaining to valley plains shall have more extreme events in maximum temperatures while as the grids towards the mountain fronts shall have more extreme events in precipitation and minimum temperatures in the future. The results establish a strong link between changing climate and climatic extremes in the region. The study is finally aimed to use PRECIS RCM simulations for impact assessment studies in the region.