地下構造モデルと強震動シミュレーション

Abstract

The Japan islands are in a complex tectonic setting with various subducting plates, and most of urban areas are located over large-scale sedimentary basins. Since the sediments filling basins amplify ground motions and their velocity structures complicate the propagation of seismic waves, it is important for the prediction of strong ground motion and seismic hazard to determine the three-dimensional (3-D) velocity structures of these urban basins. This importance motivated various organizations to carry out extensive geophysical experiments and geological investigations, and velocity structure models are being constructed all over Japan. We have already proposed a standard procedure for modeling a regional 3-D velocity structure in Japan, simultaneously and sequentially using various kinds of datasets such as the extensive refraction/ reflection experiments, gravity surveys, surface geology, borehole logging data, microtremor surveys, and earthquake ground motion records. We applied the procedure to the Tokyo metropolitan area for constructing a reference 3-D velocity structure model. As this application confirmed the validity of the standard procedure, it is then applied to the central, eastern, and western parts of Japan in 2006 to 2008, to construct the Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model. The velocity structure and source modelings have been dramatically improved after the 1995 Kobe earthquake with the advance of ground motion simulations based on substantial data of strong motion observation. The quality of broadband ground motion simulations enable us to predict realistic strong ground motions. The National Seismic Hazard Maps released in 2005 as a result of comprehensive research on long-term evaluation of earthquake occurrence and strong ground motion prediction are expected to be proved useful in earthquake disaster mitigation and scientific outreach to the public. It is also quite important for the simulation of long-period ground motion and its seismic hazard to validate the three-dimensional (3-D) velocity structure for the whole Japan islands. Since we are threatened by future earthquakes whose probabilities of occurrence are estimated to be high in long-term evaluation, long-period ground motions from future Tokai, Tonankai, Nankai, and Miyagi-oki earthquakes and their response spectra will be computed by using this Japan Integrated Velocity Structure Model, and combined into the Long-Period Ground Motion Hazard Maps in 2009 and later by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion. These hazard maps for the megathrust earthquakes may be proved to be touchstones of strong motion seismology.