论水库运用设计洪水

Abstract

计算水库运用设计洪水必须首先分析水库运用面临径流年内随机过程概率规律，并考虑水库调度决策特点、要求。本文为水库运用设计洪水预报概率模型提供了理论框架。并以三峡水库为例予以验证。结果表明，概率模型给出的三峡水库动态设计洪水预报是合理的，可靠的。 To calculate the design flood for reservoir operation, we first need to analyze the regularity of annual runoff process’s stochastic probability of the reservoir, and take the characteristics and the requirements of reservoir operation decision into account. A theoretical framework for develop-ment of design flood forecast probability model has been provided in this paper and validated with the Three Gorges Reservoir. The results indicate that the dynamic design flood forecast of the Three Gorges Reservoir based on this probability model is reasonable and reliable.