Abstract
Flood disaster occurs quite frequently in Malaysia and has been categorized as the most threatening natural disaster compared to landslides, hurricanes, tsunami, haze and others. A study by Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) show that 9% of land areas in Malaysia are prone to flood which may affect approximately 4.9 million of the population. 2 Dimensional floods routing modelling demonstrate is turning out to be broadly utilized for flood plain display and is an extremely viable device for evaluating flood. Flood propagations can be better understood by simulating the flow and water level by using hydrodynamic modelling. The hydrodynamic flood routing can be recognized by the spatial complexity of the schematization such as 1D model and 2D model. It was found that most of available hydrological models for flood forecasting are more focus on short duration as compared to long duration hydrological model using the Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM). The aim of this paper is to discuss preliminary findings on development of flood forecasting model using Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM) for Kelantan river basin. Among the findings discuss in this paper includes preliminary calibrated PDM model, which performed reasonably for the Dec 2014, but underestimated the peak flows. Apart from that, this paper also discusses findings on Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) and flood plain analysis. Flood forecasting is the complex process that begins with an understanding of the geographical makeup of the catchment and knowledge of the preferential regions of heavy rainfall and flood behaviour for the area of responsibility. Therefore, to decreases the uncertainty in the model output, so it is important to increase the complexity of the model.
Highlights
A flood can be defined as the inundation of a normally dry area caused by an increased water level in a watercourse or in a body of water
This Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM) model will have a substantial impact on the overall performance of the flood forecasting system; it was important to achieve the best calibration possible with the available data
This would give an advantage to the flood forecasting model using PDM which is the long duration hydrological model should be the first choice
Summary
A flood can be defined as the inundation of a normally dry area caused by an increased water level in a watercourse or in a body of water. This study is limited to the floods in rivers, which can be characterised by the sudden or gradual increase in water levels, normally beyond the bank level of the river watercourse and subsequently inundating its surrounding. The extreme flood disaster which happened from 14th December 2014 to 10th January 2015 affected 6 states in Malaysia namely Pahang, Terengganu, Kelantan, Perak, Perlis and Johor has led to loss of assets and lives. The flood in Kelantan destroyed 2000 houses with a total loss of assets at RM2.9 billion. It reported 25 deaths and 500,000 house evacuations
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