湘江流域城市化与水资源环境交互耦合机制研究

Abstract

为研究湘江流域城市化与水资源环境的耦合协调机制，本文利用流域内8个市州2000~2014年的统计数据，在建立城市化与水资源环境系统综合指标体系的基础上，构造耦合协调模型、灰色关联模型，揭示两系统的交互耦合机制，并运用ArcGIS的Jenks分类法分析流域耦合协调度的时空演变态势。结果表明：1) 湘江流域15年来城市化与水资源环境的协调关系总体趋向良性发展，耦合协调度从0.65波动上升至0.92。2) 流域内各市州城市化与水资源耦合协调度表现出复杂的空间分异特征，随着各市州经济状况、自然条件的差异而有所不同。3) 水资源本底条件是影响水资源环境的决定因素，人口规模、结构和科技水平则是水资源环境的主要胁迫因素；经济要素在城市化进程中起关键作用，供水设施和环境压力为城市化水平的主要约束因素。流域内城市化与水资源系统间驱动机制错综复杂，与各城市经济发展模式存在较大关联。 Based on the comprehensive index system between urbanization and water resource & environment of the Xiangjiang River basin, a coupling coordination model and GRA (Grey Relational Analysis) model were established to analyze quantitatively space-time dynamics of urbanization and water resources environment by coupling coordination degree, and to reveal the interactive coupling mechanism of two systems. The results are: 1) In the last 15 years, the coupling coordination between urbanization and water resources & environment in the Xiangjiang River basin trends upward totally while the internal mechanism remains to be optimized. 2) The coordination degrees of these cities show characteristically spatial differentiation, which is related to the economic development and natural conditions. 3) The driving mechanism is extremely complicated. As a whole, the background of water resources is the main determinant of water resources and environment while the population structure is the main stressor of that. Economic urbanization is the main determinant of the urbanization level of a river basin while the water supply facilities and environmental pressure primarily constrain the process of urbanization. However, the driving mechanism of each city shows pertinent regional differences, which is closely related to the urban economic development model.