米国におけるバイオエタノール混合率引き上げが国際とうもろこし需給に与える影響

Abstract

The production and utilization of biofuel is promoted in the U.S., and it is estimated that the U.S. biofuel market will continue to expand in the future. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decided partially waiver to allow gasoline that contains up to 15 volume percent bioethanol (E15) for certain motor vehicles on October 13, 2010. EPA approved the waiver for 2007 and newer passenger cars, light trucks including sports utility vehicles (SUV). This study uses dynamic partial equilibrium model to examine how the increasing U.S. bioethanol blend ratio on the world corn market. The baseline projection is based on a series of assumptions about the general economy, agricultural policies, and technological growth in all countries and regions during the projection period. In addition to this, it is assumed that gasoline stations in Mid-West states would install E15 equipments for certain vehicles. This study supposes two scenarios to compare with baseline scenario. If the U.S. government doesn't grant the waiver, world corn price would decrease by 1.10% in 2011/12 and 4.14% in 2020/21. In addition to this, if gasoline stations in all U.S. states install E15 equipments, world corn price will increase by 5.03% in 2011/12 and 14.01% in 2020/21. The results of this study indicate that the increasing of U.S. bioethanol blend ratio will impact on the world corn market and their impact will increase gradually from year to year.