International Rice Baseline with Deterministic and Stochastic Projections, 2012-2021

Abstract

This publication contains recent baseline projections from the Arkansas Global Rice Economics Program (AGREP) for U.S. and international rice economies. These projections serve as a baseline for evaluating and comparing alternative macroeconomic, policy, weather, and technological scenarios. They are intended for use by government agencies and officials, farmers, consumers, agribusinesses and others who conduct medium-range and long-term planning. The AGREP baseline projections are grounded in a series of assumptions about the general economy, agricultural policies, weather, and technological change. It is generally assumed that current agricultural policies will be continued in the United States and other countries reported in this study. The AGREP World Rice Outlook starts with a preliminary baseline that is generated in the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) multi-commodity global framework maintained at Iowa State University. The preliminary baseline is then submitted to a review process by experts from U.S. and international governments and organizations, individuals from the land grant and other universities as well as from extension specialists and industry experts. Their comments and suggestions are taken into consideration in the final baseline. We acknowledge and appreciate the help of these numerous individuals, but we take full responsibility for any remaining errors. The projections included in the outlook were prepared in January 2012 based on the best information available at that time.