“My Opinion This Time Is Not Good”: Determinants of the South Sudanese Diaspora's Opinion on Its Role in Peace, the Number of States, and the 2018 Peace Agreement

Abstract

This study examines the factors that influence the South Sudanese diaspora's perceptions of its role in peace, its disagreement with the creation of new states in South Sudan, and its opinion of the 2018 peace agreement. Through a survey conducted among diaspora members in Nebraska, United States, in September 2018 and May 2019, this study finds that participants with a high level of engagement in their diaspora community are significantly more likely to disagree that the diaspora's contribution towards peace in South Sudan is negative, thus viewing their role favorably. Furthermore, participants from the Equatoria region are significantly more likely to disagree with increasing the number of states and to hold a negative view of the 2018 peace agreement. Other demographic variables, such as age, number of years spent in the diaspora, level of education, and level of interest are also statistically significant in various models. This article argues for the relevance of diasporas in politically contentious and volatile contexts such as South Sudan. It contributes to the literature on peacemaking and peacebuilding by using new data to study a relatively under-explored diaspora community.