Municipal-level estimates (2020) of adult obesity in Mexico drawn from a hierarchical Bayesian estimator

Abstract

Since the beginning of the 21st Century obesity has become a major public health concern in Mexico. Survey data have been key to tracking the evolution of the national and regional prevalence of obesity over time. However, these data are insufficient for policymakers and researchers interested in obesity from a more local and spatial perspective. This paper uses two secondary data sources: the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey 2021 and the Mexican National Population Census 2020. This paper implements a Bayesian hierarchical approach to model survey and census data to produce municipal-level estimates for Mexico in 2020. The results indicate that obesity has inter and intra-regional variability. Obesity is more prevalent in the north and in the Yucatan peninsula and tends to be lower in the state of Chiapas. However, within these regions there is some degree of variability in obesity rates. The results provide a more detailed geographical picture of obesity across Mexico and raise the possibility of using the resulting estimates for further statistical and policy-relevant research.