Multivariate simulation modelling for adaptive long-term infrastructure planning

Abstract

Infrastructure asset managers are challenged by rapid changes around the world such as urbanisation and climate change. They have to deal with multiple complex and dynamic infrastructure systems that can influence each other and that can be influenced by various uncertain factors. Traditional planning methods are not well suited to complex and dynamic infrastructure environments. However, there are various alternative methods that can be used. This paper presents a simulation model for adaptive long-term infrastructure planning. For this model, a combination of planning and simulation methods is used that can cope with complex and dynamic (infrastructure) environments (i.e. system dynamics, exploratory modelling and analysis and adaptive pathways). This methodology is illustrated with a case consisting of a road system and a lock system in the Netherlands. The approach should be tested further in other cases, but it shows promise in improving the support of infrastructure decision-making in a complex, dynamic and uncertain infrastructure environment.