Multi-stage stochastic programming for resilient integrated electricity and natural gas distribution systems against typhoon natural disaster attacks

Abstract

Recent energy systems have witnessed a large number of extreme weather events due to the global climate change, resulting in severe damages and economic losses. To address this problem, this paper proposes a multi-stage stochastic programming model for resilient integrated electricity and natural gas distribution systems under typhoon natural disasters. A three-stage modeling is employed to quantify the system resilience against the dynamic process of a typhoon, where the network reinforcement, network reconfiguration, and network repairing are coordinated. Moreover, the interaction between the power system and natural gas system during a typhoon attack is reflected in this model. To address the uncertainties introduced by the typhoon moving paths, non-anticipativtity constraints are adopted in the proposed multi-stage stochastic programming model. Case studies on a 33-bus-48-node and a 144-bus-85-node integrated electricity and natural gas distribution systems verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results of the case studies show that the current IEGDS is still fragile when facing natural disasters, and building a resilient IEGDS to recover from natural disasters rapidly is meaningful in recent vigorous trends of developing integrated energy systems. By applying the proposed model, the proposed model and strategies can enable the IEGDS to reduce the load curtailment by about 52%, and the total economic loss will be reduced by 54%.