Multistable states in the biosphere-climate system: towards conceptual models

Abstract

Forecasting response of the biosphere and regional ecosystems to observed and expected climate change is the fundamental problem with obvious practical significance. Fundamental non-linearity of the climate system and biosphere makes feasible implementing multiple states and threshold processes in the biosphere-climate system (BCS) in response to gradually increasing influence factor (greenhouse gas concentrations growth). Really time series analysis of global temperature and other global and local parameters indicates the presence of abrupt transitions between stationary states. Identification of the switching mechanisms using general circulation models of the atmosphere and the ocean is associated with the obvious difficulties due to their complexity. Understanding the nature of such switches at qualitative level can be achieved by using a conceptual small-scale models. Some variants of possible mechanisms capable of generating these shifts and simultaneously supporting quasi-stationary periods between them are discussed.