Multi-scenario simulation of production-living-ecological space and ecological effects based on shared socioeconomic pathways in Zhengzhou, China

Abstract

With the rapid development of the economy, China’s urban area has faced dual pressure from the population and land expansion, which has led to a deterioration of the ecological environment. Conflicts between regional production, living and ecological spaces (PLES) have intensified. In this context, rational PLES planning is of great importance for promoting sustainable urban development. However, due to the difficulties in simulating the spatiotemporal distribution of urban PLES according to future socioeconomic development scenarios, effective evaluation of the ecological effects of PLES at the city level remains challenging. In this study, we presented a scenario-based PLES ecological effects assessment framework, integrating a Future Land Use Simulation Model (FLUS), Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and an Eco-environmental Effect Method, to analyse the patterns of spatiotemporal changes at the urban-level PLES and assess its potential ecological effects in Zhengzhou, China. The results showed that from 2025 to 2100, according to scenarios SSPs1, SSPs 2, SSPs 3 and SSPs 5, production space is gradually declining, living space is clearly expanding, and ecological space is continuously decreasing, except for SSPs4. Under the five SSPs, the spatial distribution pattern of PLES is relatively consistent. Living space is mainly distributed in the central urban area. Ecological space is concentrated in the western region of Zhengzhou city, and production space is widespread and scattered throughout the study area. In 2035, the spatial distribution of the eco-environmental quality index is uneven. High eco-environmental area is located in the southwest and low eco-environmental area is located in the middle of Zhengzhou city. The main reason for the deterioration of the eco-environmental quality under five different SSPs scenarios was that agricultural productive land and water ecological land are occupied by urban living land. This research will provide a reference for future urban sustainable development and the ecological civilization construction.