Spatiotemporal pattern and influencing factors of urbanization quality in county areas of Shandong Province, China

Abstract

This study evaluates urbanization quality across 137 county-level administrative divisions in Shandong Province, China, through an evaluation indicator system developed for the county level. Utilizing a modified entropy method, this research delves into the level and spatiotemporal patterns of urbanization quality. Moreover, it scrutinizes the determinants of urbanization quality employing both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. The findings reveal that: (1) Throughout the study period, the urbanization quality within Shandong’s county areas manifested a progressive trend; however, the pace of improvement decelerated. Significantly, the contribution of the quality of life to the overall urbanization quality index registered a notable increase, it shows that improving the quality of life has increasingly become the core driving force for improving the quality of urbanization. At the same time, it is found that the main driving force for the improvement of urbanization quality comes from the municipal district, and gradually radiates to county-level cities and counties. (2) The study identified pronounced regional disparities in urbanization quality and its constitutive dimensions across Shandong’s county areas. The “H“-shaped pattern urbanization high-quality development distribution belt is formed along the main transportation lines, indicating that transportation is one of the core elements of urbanization quality improvement. At the same time, when a region has two development centers, due to the need to take into account the development of the two centers, it is possible to form an “H”-shaped pattern spatial distribution pattern. The formation of high-quality development distribution belt of H“-shaped pattern urbanization indicates that Shandong Province is a typical dual-center development model. (3) Among the factors influencing urbanization quality, the number of domestic invention patents per 10,000 people and population density were found to exert significant effects, displaying a considerable degree of spatial variability, it shows that attracting a large number of innovative talents is an important strategy to improve the quality of urbanization. At the same time, based on the measurement results, it is found that if Shandong Province continues to invest 2.1 trillion yuan to improve the quality of people's lives, it will greatly improve the urbanization quality in the county areas of Shandong Province. It is expected that around 2069, about 80% of the county areas in the study area will achieve high quality and relatively high quality development.