Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Land Use Impacts on Habitat Quality in Tianjin Based on the PLUS Model Coupled with the InVEST Model

Abstract

Land use change is an important cause of habitat quality change. In order to reveal the impact of urban land use change on habitat quality, and to explore sustainable development planning, this paper uses the city of Tianjin, China, as a case study. Based on land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, the PLUS model was first used to predict land use in 2030 under three scenarios, and the InVEST model was then used to assess habitat quality from 2000 to 2030. This study showed that habitat quality was highly correlated with land use change. The rapid expansion of construction land was the main reason for the year-by-year decline in habitat quality. From 2000 to 2030, habitat quality in Tianjin declined year-by-year according to the average habitat quality values for 2030 for the three scenarios: the Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS) > Natural Development Scenario (NPS) > Economic Construction Scenario (ECS). In the EPS, habitat quality will deteriorate and improve. It would be ecologically beneficial to continue to work on the revegetation of the Jizhou area. In the ECS, habitat quality will decline sharply. In Tianjin, urbanization will continue to accelerate. This is a threat to the sustainable development of the city.