Multi-Scenario Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions: The Case of Hebei Province in China

Zeng Li,Yaxin Wang,Gang Lin,Kun Liu,Jingying Fu,Dong Jiang

doi:10.3390/en12040624

Abstract

In view of the complexity of the energy system and its complex relationship with socio-economic factors, this study adopts the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, a technology-based, bottom-up approach, scenario-based analysis, to develop a systematic analysis of the current and future energy consumption, supply and associated Green House Gas (GHG) emissions from 2015 to 2050. The impact of various energy policies on the energy system in Hebei Province was analysed by considering four scenarios: a Reference Scenario (REF), Industrial Structure Optimization Scenario (ISO), Terminal Consumption Structure Optimization Scenario (TOS) and Low-carbon Development Scenario (LCD). By designing strategic policies from the perspective of industrial adjustment, aggressive energy structure policies and measures, such as the ISO and the TOS, and even more aggressive options, such as the LCD, where the percentage of cleaner alternative energy sources has been further increased, it has been indicated that energy consumption will have increased from 321.618 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2015 to 784.88 Mtce in 2050 in the REF, with a corresponding increase in GHG emissions from 920.56 million metric tonnes (Mt) to 2262.81 Mt. In contrast, the more aggressive policies and strategies involved in the LCD, which combines the ISO with the policy-oriented TOS, can lower energy consumption by 50.82% and CO2 emissions by 64.26%. The results shed light on whether and how these scenarios can shape the energy-carbon emission reduction trajectories and develop the low-carbon pathways in Hebei Province.

Highlights

Energy is a significant material guarantee foundation for national economic development and social construction
Zhao et al evaluated the effects of a carbon pricing policy on the development of China’s power sector by introducing 13 CO2 emission scenarios between 2010 and 2050 using an improved computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, and the results showed that compared with carbon emission trading, a carbon tax plays a greater role in reducing CO2 emissions both in the short and long terms [16]
The energy consumption increased from 321.61 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2015 to 784.88 Mtce in 2050 in the Reference Scenario (REF), with an average annual growth rate of 2.58%, the highest among the four scenarios

Summary

Introduction

Energy is a significant material guarantee foundation for national economic development and social construction. In the process of human consumption of traditional fossil energy, many CO2 -based greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere, causing global warming, climate change and the depletion of natural resources [3,4]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that more than 95% of global warming has been caused by human activities and that carbon dioxide is one of the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases, accounting for more than 70% of the total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and resulting in the most stringent emission reduction scenarios of the IPCC; the global surface temperature may increase further by 2.6 to 4.8 ◦ C in the twenty-first century [5]. The national independent contribution document submitted to the United Nations has clarified a series of targets, such as China’s carbon dioxide emissions, which will peak around 2030 [12], which means that more efforts are needed to control the total amount of energy consumption and reduce carbon emissions

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Discussion

Conclusion